As of this writing, the tipping-point state is likely to be Pennsylvania:
the upper-midwest “blue wall” state where Harris’s lead is smallest
— a mere 1.2 percent.

Her lead there, though slim, mercifully suggests the Electoral College’s pro-GOP bias has shrunk since 2020
— that a three point national popular vote margin will be good enough.

It also suggests that a tiny change in the dynamics of the election could throw the whole thing to Trump, against the will of a popular majority.
-- But wait, there’s more.

Harris doesn’t just have to pad her popular vote margin to overcome Electoral College bias -- She also has to overcome the margin of Republican #cheating and #insurrection.

Our Electoral College is indefensible, but its current bias isn’t part of some conspiracy against her -- Trump supporters just happened to be better distributed geographically to win 270 electoral votes while losing head-to-head nationwide.

The corruption scandal is that Trump and the GOP want to exploit these arbitrary, antidemocratic aspects of our system to make it even harder for Democrats to win.
digbysblog.net/2024/09/24/the-…

The Confident Underdog - Digby's Hullabaloo

An explanation is warranted Real Clear politics polling average this morning. Brian Beutler wisely suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to remind voters why, if she's ahead in the polls, she and Gov. Tim Walz are still underdogs.

^{Digby's Hullabaloo}