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Items tagged with: AMOC
Trouble is brewing in the North Atlantic.
'We don't really consider it low probability anymore':
Collapse of key Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts, says oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf
The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point.
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.
Beneath the waves, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( #AMOC ),
which includes the Gulf Stream,
acts as a planetary conveyor belt bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat north from tropical waters,
while moving colder water south
— a balancing act that keeps the Northern Hemisphere warm.
But research into Earth's climate history shows that the current has switched off in the past,
and a growing number of studies suggest that climate change is causing the AMOC to slow, possibly leading it toward a disastrous collapse.
On Monday (Oct. 21), 44 oceanographers from 15 countries published an open letter calling for urgent action in the face of the weakening circulation.
They warn that the risk of collapse has been "greatly underestimated" and will have "devastating and irreversible impacts" for the world.
Live Science sat down with the letter's lead organizer, #Stefan #Rahmstorf, an oceanographer who runs the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, to discuss the AMOC developments and their potential global effects.
livescience.com/planet-earth/r…
'We don't really consider it low probability anymore': Collapse of key Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts, says oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf
The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.Ben Turner (Live Science)
"Climate Extremes: At The Abyss?" is now available for viewing. In this new documentary film, we discuss the complexity of Earth system dynamics on a warming planet--including the rising risk of reaching dangerous "tipping points." #ClimateChange #AMOC
youtu.be/U8pLrRkqbb0?si=7RtX0_…
Climate Extremes (Full Documentary)
Share Climate Extremes with your friends and followers! Help the public become more educated about planetary behavior, tipping points, and climate science f...YouTube
#FYI #climatechange #tippingpoints #amoc
We are at 1.6°C now
"insights from scientists including Johan Rockström, Daniel Swain, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Samantha Burgess from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and University of California/US National Center for Atmospheric Research"
youtube.com/watch?v=U8pLrRkqbb…
#climate #ClimateScience #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #ExtremeWeather
Climate Extremes (Full Documentary)
Share Climate Extremes with your friends and followers! Help the public become more educated about planetary behavior, tipping points, and climate science f...YouTube
#FYI #AMOC #ArcticCircle #StefanRahmstorf
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
SPEAKERS
H.E. Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate, Iceland
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam University
MODERATOR
Hildigunnur Thorsteinsson, Director General, Icelandic Meteorological Office
youtube.com/watch?v=k0FUZKQhU6…
#climate #ClimateScience #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #ExtremeWeather
Is the AMOC Shutting Down? - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
SPEAKERSH.E. Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate, IcelandStefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam ...YouTube
Interesting preprint by @atthenius et al 2024 on the teleconnection of Sahara Greening and ENSO (up to?) 6,000 years ago essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10…
"Thus, ENSO's sensitivity to Green Saharan changes in northern Africa reflects the importance of incorporating vegetation and land surface changes in studying past and future climates."
The same team also held an EGU or AGU talk this year about the Green #Sahara's teleconnection to the #Arctic also for the period 6ka and they said "We show that simulations incorporating the Green Sahara yield considerably higher Arctic warming relative to simulations without explicit prescriptions of vegetation changes. " meetingorganizer.copernicus.or…
If I had a wish, I'd want the team investigate the common era AD 1000ff, and include the #AMOC reconstruction by @rahmstorf et al 2015, and Nino3.4 by Cook et al 2008.
And incorporate the vegetation cover change due to population changes in the 1610-event and in the 1940-event when (CO2 concentration and CO2 growth dropped dramatically and) AMOC did a nosedive in what looks like a response to both changes in land use.
See my chart below and note that the 1940-event was also accompanied by a large drop in Asia's population growth I hadn't known of yet when I made the chart.
I'll post another chart tomorrow showing Cook's and Rahmstorf's time series and how well they are in sync (when AMOC data is moved 13 years into the future).
Both "discoveries" had me brood over the possible teleconnection between the two tipping elements AMOC and #Amazon rainforest the other way round than what is known as fact. To me it looks as if it works both ways: the closure of the forest canope in the 1610-event also slowed down AMOC to its then lowest speed ever. And again in the 1940-event.
Since Cook's Nino3.4 and AMOC evolve so similarly in AD, another bit from the ENSO preprint has to be mentioned. 6ka, ENSO was in a permanent La Nina state:
"precessional changes intensified the West African Monsoon (WAM), which further led to a “Green Sahara”, i.e. the expansion of shrub vegetation across northern Africa in place of the present-day Saharan Desert. Basin-wide multi-proxy evidence from the Pacific has indicated that the Middle Holocene was also characterized by a La Niña-like mean state with lower ENSO variability"
And this, lords & ladies, was something Matt England's team found in models 2022: a future AMOC slowdown causes a permanent LaNina agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
And again in 2023 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
And we now need to know: what will be the climate impact on ENSO and AMOC when our tech civilisation crashes, empties all cities and all of Global North where people simply are too tech dependent to survive the crash. Also frees up today's tropical soy and palm tree plantations to be re-conquered by forests, since no one will "need" Nutella or biodiesel anymore.
Change in vegetation drives huge changes in atmospheric currents, water cycle, and regional climates. We owe it to crash survivors to inform them what they'll have to cope with in their region during the decades until the biome changes have fully materialised. I guess 60 years or so until New York, Rio, Tokyo look like a South American jungle with the ruins of skyscrapers piercing the forest canope.
And we owe them the info about what comes after.
That's why I propose official research in #RCPcollapse or #SSP0 .
But legraLeGra's team investigating AMOC, ENSO and vegetation build-up following population drops in the current era (#plague outbreaks as well? From memory 1348, 596, 1890) would be a great first start! Hopefully paving the way to a new full research body that can directly and positively influence how the rural survivors can prepare before, and re-group after the civilisation crash.
#PaleoClimate
Mid-Holocene ENSO Variability reduced by northern African vegetation changes: a model intercomparison study
The relationship between the mean state of the Pacific Ocean and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its variability through time is inadequately understood, especially on longer timescales.Authorea
Here is Professor Stefan Rahmstorf presentation to the Arctic Council earlier this month on whether the AMOC is Shutting Down? - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
AMOC shutting down could have a catastrophic impact on Northern Europe including more extreme weather events, but also on sealevels along north American coast, and global impacts with changes in precipitation.
#ClimateDiary #ClimateCrisis #AMOC #Ocean #TippingPoints
youtube.com/watch?v=k0FUZKQhU6…
Is the AMOC Shutting Down? - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
SPEAKERSH.E. Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate, IcelandStefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam ...YouTube
Captain Henry Ellis is a fascinating character of 18th-century England. During a voyage, which took place in 1746-1747, he gathered scientific data about the Gulf Stream and experimented to measure water temperature at different depths.
➡️ open.substack.com/pub/theplane…
Climate Scientists Sound the Alarm About the Atlantic's Crucial Conveyor Belt
Why the AMOC should be on top of our political leaders' agendas.Alexander Verbeek 🌍 (The Planet)
It is well established that #AMOC is weakening and that a tipping point exists. The uncertainty is about when we will cross that threshold. We also have very few studies about what the combined effect of AMOC collapse and #globalheating would exactly look like. It is a question of risk assessment.
theguardian.com/environment/20… #climatechange
‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine lifeJonathan Watts (The Guardian)
I had the honor of presenting a letter by 44 experts warning of that underestimated risk to many countries.
Watch the video: youtu.be/k0FUZKQhU6U?t=197 Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 @rahmstorf
Is the AMOC Shutting Down? - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
SPEAKERSH.E. Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate, IcelandStefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam ...YouTube
#ClimateScience #ClimateExtremes #ClimateChange #AMOC #TippingPoints #Documentary
Climate Extremes (Full Documentary)
Share Climate Extremes with your friends and followers! Help the public become more educated about planetary behavior, tipping points, and climate science f...YouTube
I have videos of 50 minutes (my Alfred Wegener Medal lecture), 35 minutes and 15 minutes on our YouTube channel.
This one is the shortest, for those with little time.
Watch & share.
youtu.be/mm_YZ2juQL4
Is the AMOC Shutting Down?
Presentation by Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik on 19 October 2024.Rahmstorf presented a let...YouTube
Final Warnings!
Everybody, Everywhere, STOP what you are Doing, what you are Speaking & What you are Thinking.
No, I’m not writing as a dulled follower of a Satanic ultra conservative death cult psycho-liar despot
I am writing as someone who reads climate science, & that has now given all of humanity its Final Warnings.
tos.org/oceanography/article/i…
Adapt Now or Die!
[LiveScience] - "We don't really consider it low probability anymore": Collapse of key #Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts.
Trouble is brewing in the #NorthAtlantic. Beneath the waves, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC), which includes the #GulfStream, acts as a planetary conveyor belt bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat north from tropical waters, while moving colder water south — a balancing act that keeps the Northern Hemisphere warm.
livescience.com/planet-earth/r…
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming
#Ocean
#Press
'We don't really consider it low probability anymore': Collapse of key Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts, says oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf
The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.Ben Turner (Live Science)