So I postponed my train to Alexandria, VA, that I was supposed to be on in an hour. I was going to lead a session at the Restore America's Estuaries Coastal and Estuarine Summit about mangroves as carbon sinks. Ironic. Mangroves may pull CO2 from the air and bury it, providing ecosystem services, but they can't do.it fast or efficiently enough to save us from our energy consumption sins.

#RestoreAmericasEstuaries #CoastalAndEstuarineSummit
#mangroves
#CarbonCapture
#CarbonSink
#ClimateChange

Instead, I will be putting hurricane shutters up. During Hurricane Helene I did not, because the storm track converged in the models more than a hundred miles away. It got windier here than we thought, but we never regretted that decision. Now it is the weekend, I ended my travel plans, and the weather is relatively good. Given that some models have this as a category 4 and potentially a direct hit, we will put them up. There is too much to potentially regret with this forecast, and I tend to measure these decisions in terms of minimizing potential regret (will I regret spending $500 dollars to evacuate more than being in a post-apocalyptic nightmare with no power, no water, and potentially no shelter? - probably not). It is annoying if we live in a cave over the next few days and the storm doesn't materialize, but at least I won't be scrambling at the last minute.

#HiurricaneMilton
#HurricanePreparations
#ClimateChange
#ClimateEmergency
#Florida

Latest model runs have a nightmare scenario for Florida. This is a deep low pressure storm, just into Category 3 strength, and heading toward the Florida coastline with the "dirty side" throwing lots of water into the bay. The major population center lives in the backend of this funnel-shaped bay, and the storm surge gets magnified the further you move into the bay. The city of Tampa would be ground zero in this situation. And, my earlier comments about the feeble Florida insurance industry? Click the link (maybe pay-walled, sorry, I couldn't find gift link).

tampabay.com/news/florida-poli…

We say in science, "All models are wrong; some are useful*." Given the variables in nature and the incredible detail in this image, there is next to 0 chance that this will become a reality. But small differences from the model (what some would say make it "wrong") don't matter to me. What matters is that there are multiple model solutions realizing a strong storm coming our way, and all of the models have different physical parameterizations, starting points, input date, etc. This is called convergence. None of the models are the same, i.e. they are likely wrong, but the convergence of them around this solution is very useful.

*George E.P. Box is usually credited with this saying.

The models had a southward shift overnight that calmed us down a bit. This afternoon, they showed a northward shift in Florida after a southward shift toward the Yucatan. That is less good news, so we are waiting for the 5AM advisory to make a decision. All the while two negative developments for Florida have happened:
1. The storm is consistently resolving with more strength in the models. Intensity is harder to model, and there is still a lot of scatter. But the trend is more models showing a stronger storm. That is not good.
2. Vertical wind shear is still forecast to increase toward landfall. Originally it was thought this would weaken the storm before landfall. It may, still. However, it seems to be making the wind field larger meaning it will have more of a wind event effect on more of the coast no matter where it specifically lands.

No matter what, the surge will be enormous if the wind field area increases with more than 24 hours until landfall. I'm still thinking a landfall slightly north of Tampa, which would be more oblique to the coast and longer over water, will be a nightmare scenario.

Friend sent me this from that other site. I dedicate it to Anna Paulina Luna, the congresswoman who represents the district here in St. Petersburg that just flooded and whose residents are frantically cleaning up after Helene as Milton approaches.

#Milton
#HurricaneMilton
#ClimateEmergency

It was nice to wake up to a slightly weakened Hurricane Milton. Now that the eyewall replacement is done, the center is wider and it should strengthen. It is also right on a boundary with high wind shear, so that may start to affect it in the next 12 hours, when it should start gradual weakening. We have a few more things around the house to do and then we will leave later tonight.

St. Petersburg is starting to feel like a ghost town.

The Tampa Bay Times is running an article now on how to evacuate if you are still here. One of the ways being touted by the DeSantis administration is by Uber - Uber rides are free!

I have major problems with this approach, Who drives Uber? People with no health benefits from Uber drive for Uber, people who are underpaid drive for Uber, people who use their own cars drive for Uber. But doing this, the state need not give them shelter or provide benefits, but the "service" requires Uber drivers to be present. Doesn't that defeat the purpose of an evacuation? Keeping people in town so they can drive others out? And am I the only one who sees this is as stupid?

#milton
#HurricaneMilton
#Florida
#StPetersburg
#Tampa
#ClimateEmergency

It was nice to see, at 10 pm, that the mortal were continuing their shift southward. This 0Z 9 Oct 2024 run put Tampa Bay in the clear, with all models putting us on the better side of the eye with little threat if a huge surge isolating Pinellas county for days or weeks. Normally, given this news we would just stay and ride the storm out.

However, prior to the sustained southward shift in model guidance, we told my parents in Naples that they could probably stay put. They live 15 miles from the coast in a neighborhood with no big trees and buried power lines. They would be safe if the storm landed in or just a little south of Tampa Bay. When we saw this 0z run at 10pm, though, we felt they may be better off going to Miami or coming here to St. Petersburg.

The only problem was that we had told them we were coming late tonight and, at this point, they were asleep and our calls weren't waking them. In the morning they would still have time to go to Miami, but the traffic would be bad and they are getting go there in years. So after the 11pm official forecast came out and confirmed the models rune's southward shift, we left anyway.

We are here in Naples now, and that may ultimately be worse than St. Petersburg. But my parents have us, and our kids have their grandparents, and that all counts for something.

#ClimateDisaster
#HurricaneMilton
#Milton
#Florida

Leaving was bittersweet. There is something that happens during the approach and aftermath of a hurricane that we want our children to see. It is cliché, but the community comes together.

Last night, in a super market to get items for nervous snacking, small groups of people gathered in all parts of the storm to chat, to give people advice, to share lived experience. The cashier was curious about everyone's plans and wished everyone safety through the storm. As I left, a man asked me how bad it was in there. When I told time that there was evidence that people were snacking due to Milton, he laughed and sad, "That's what I'm here for!"

At home today, while prepping the house, we had more conversations with neighbors than we have had cumulatively over the last 6 months probably.

Why does it take an imminent disaster to bring us together like that? After the storm, there is always an outpouring of support, checking in on one another. We want our kids to know how to build community like this for their climate-altered reality, the only future they are going to have.

#Milton
#Hurricane
#ClimateEmergency

OK, the forecast jumped back north overnight and into this morning. We are probably at the limits of precision for the track now, and we are certain that this will not hit Naples directly nor will it hit north of St. Petersburg. We are the red dot; we will have tropical storm force winds and that is about it.

But, it is a good thing we evacuated to here. My parents had told us they put up their shutters, but they only did one side of their house. I did two other sides this morning, and the fourth side (front) is all impact resistant windows.

There is a community aspect to this too. Hearing me put up hurricane shutters caused their neighbor to do the same. Putting up shutters is contagious!

#Milton
#HurricaneMilton
#ClimateEmergency

We came back home today! Of all the places we crossed (Sarasota, Bradenton) on our way to St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg looked the worst. Caveat - the interstate is better maintained than the surface roads.

For reference we live about 12 city blocks from Tropicana Park that many of you have seen on the news and about 20 city blocks from that fallen crane if you saw that too.

Here are some pictures from our yard.

#Milton
#Florida
#ClimateEmergency
#ClimateChange
#HurricaneMilton
#Hurricane

This tree used to be straight (green line) and now it leans toward our house and even wrinkles the turf (red circle) due to the shift. The crown of that tree is nestled in the branches above the grill, and, somehow the fence is leaning the opposite way (pink line).

#HurricaneMilton
#Florida
#Milton
#ClimateChange