It was nice to see, at 10 pm, that the mortal were continuing their shift southward. This 0Z 9 Oct 2024 run put Tampa Bay in the clear, with all models putting us on the better side of the eye with little threat if a huge surge isolating Pinellas county for days or weeks. Normally, given this news we would just stay and ride the storm out.

However, prior to the sustained southward shift in model guidance, we told my parents in Naples that they could probably stay put. They live 15 miles from the coast in a neighborhood with no big trees and buried power lines. They would be safe if the storm landed in or just a little south of Tampa Bay. When we saw this 0z run at 10pm, though, we felt they may be better off going to Miami or coming here to St. Petersburg.

The only problem was that we had told them we were coming late tonight and, at this point, they were asleep and our calls weren't waking them. In the morning they would still have time to go to Miami, but the traffic would be bad and they are getting go there in years. So after the 11pm official forecast came out and confirmed the models rune's southward shift, we left anyway.

We are here in Naples now, and that may ultimately be worse than St. Petersburg. But my parents have us, and our kids have their grandparents, and that all counts for something.

#ClimateDisaster
#HurricaneMilton
#Milton
#Florida

Looks like it's time for another hurricane thread. Today we woke up to hurricane models realizing a storm they had been realizing when Helene hit us last week, but then in the beginning of this week the storm gradually disappeared from dynamic models. So, we weren't really paying attention anymore as it seemed to be becoming a rain maker but not a wind and surge event.

Now we are paying attention. The trend reversed and all of the models seem to be realizing a tropical cyclone ranging from Tropical Storm strength to Category 4 hurricane. Tracks are converging on central Florida's west coast. If it realizes full strength and hits slightly north of Tampa Bay, it will be an absolute disaster. It will kill many people and collapse Florida's weak, feeble insurance market (Thanks for that, Rick Scott and Republican kleptocrats!)

#Milton
#hurricane
#HurricaneMilton
#ClimateChange
#ClimateEmergency
#ClimateDisaster
#Florida